“Fed Watch” is a macroeconomic podcast, true to bitcoins rebel nature. In each episode, we question mainstream and Bitcoin narratives by examining present occasions in macroeconomics from around the world, with a focus on central banks and currencies.In this episode of “Fed Watch,” CK and I went through numerous charts, offering market updates on bitcoin, the dollar (DXY) and the Hong Kong dollar. Next, we took a look at the deteriorating scenario in Pakistan, and asked the question, is it the next Sri Lanka? We discussed the Taiwan/China scenario and I read numerous crucial snippets, one from Chinese foriegn minister Wang Yi and the other from think tank expert Wang Wen.Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.Dont forget to inspect out the “Fed Watch Clips” channel on YouTube. Enjoy This Episode On YouTube or RumbleListen To The Episode Here: Bitcoin And Other CurrenciesWe opened by looking at a weekly chart of bitcoin. Weve done this for the last few shows, since it is a great way to anchor our conversation in bitcoin. As you can see below, the cost has been very stable, pussyfooting in regards to the volume-by-price sign on the right.The bitcoin cost has actually been extremely stableIf we zoom out, the last period with weekly candles similar to today was back in September/October 2020, right before the monster rally from $10,000 to $40,000. Obviously, we arent stating that it will occur again precisely like that, but it is possible.The bitcoin rate today looks comparable to when it experienced a monster rally in 2020. The Dollar Index (DXY) is the other major currency we had a look at. I believe it is crucial to inspect the dollar practically every episode, because it is the primary competitors for bitcoin.It does seem as though it has actually peaked for the time being, however there is no sign that it will crash. Rather, the dollar is probably to form a brand-new raised variety above 100 for the next few years. This resembles how it formed a new greater variety from 2015 to 2021. Source for above images: bitcoinandmarkets.comIll include that a strong dollar is not bearish for bitcoin. Possibly, initially, a strong dollar is associated to lower bitcoin, but after the dollar has actually stabilized in a greater range, that is when bitcoin has actually traditionally rallied. Below is a screenshot from the Hong Kong Monetary Authoritys site. Each month, it launches data on its foreign currency reserves, which it uses to support its peg. Recently, I speculated that maintaining the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) peg was quickly draining its reserves. According to this press release, it just utilized somewhat more than 1% of its reserves in July to maintain the peg. That implies the HKD is most likely able to keep the peg (if it wishes to) for a number of years.Source: HKMAPakistan On The BrinkThe developing circumstance in Pakistan has a great deal of things in common with the recent collapse in Sri Lanka. In the podcast, I pointed to i5w participation with the World Economic Forum (WEF). Pakistan has actually gotten numerous countless dollars in funding to revamp its farming sector and add nationwide parks.Source: TwitterAnother resemblance between Pakistan and Sri Lanka is the essential function that Chinese funding has actually played in the last decade. Sri Lanka lost control of its significant port since it couldnt pay back Chinese loans, and now Pakistan is encumbered around $20 billion in high-interest loans to China and Chinese companies.Pakistan has just 2 months left in the spending plan, and is desperately courting new loan providers. The Chinese have turned it down, the Arab States are hesitating, the only place to turn is back to the IMF. And that suggests severe austerity.Perhaps, not unexpected, that both Sri Lanka and Pakistan are necessary nodes in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Source: Asia GreenAs Ive stated on many events, the BRI is destined failure. China is trying to make paths and locations economically viable, where the long span of history hasnt done so. No quantity of money can overturn millenia of culture and eons of geography.Well, when again, one of the crucial links in the BRI has been bankrupted by the Chinese central organizers. Taiwan/China SituationSource: AZ QuotesIve been going over the Pelosi situation and the Chinese action for days on my Telegram live streams.In this episode of “Fed Watch,” I check out some excerpts from a kept in mind Chinese minister and a Chinese think tank expert. You can read Wang Yis complete comments here. Suffice it to state for this post, he repeated “One China” lot of times, and called the U.S. the side attempting to alter the status quo. He also had very severe words for Tsai Ing-wen, the sitting president of Taiwan. He said she “betrayed the ancestors.” In another translation, I heard Yis initial remarks likewise show that she betrayed her forefathers (and her race). The next remarks I check out were from Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY) and the executive director of the China-U.S. People-To-People Exchange Research. You can read his remarks and a number of others here. He tries to discuss why Chinas response was so weak, and that China ought to not provoke an armed conflict with the U.S. till it can “outshine the U.S. in regards to economic power, obtain monetary and military strength equivalent to that of the U.S., and establish a frustrating capability to counter global sanctions.”Sounds a long method off. Ill merely encourage the reader to not get captured up in fear-baiting rhetoric about Taiwan and China. They are disciples of Sun Tzu, who said, “appear strong when you are weak.” Wen likewise priced quote Sun Tzu:”A major military clash with the U.S. is not the objective of Chinas foreign policy, nor is it the path to a much better life for the typical people. Remember what Sun Tzu composed in The Art Of War: Do not act unless there is something to gain 非利不动; do not use military force without the certainty of success 非得不用; do not go to war unless the scenario is vital 非危不战.”We wrapped up the podcast speaking about the upcoming CPI information release and other things pertinent to bitcoin. This is a visitor post by Ansel Lindner. Opinions revealed are entirely their own and do not always reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
“Fed Watch” is a macroeconomic podcast, true to bitcoins rebel nature. In each episode, we question mainstream and Bitcoin narratives by analyzing present occasions in macroeconomics from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.In this episode of “Fed Watch,” CK and I went through several charts, offering market updates on bitcoin, the dollar (DXY) and the Hong Kong dollar. Watch This Episode On YouTube or RumbleListen To The Episode Here: Bitcoin And Other CurrenciesWe opened by looking at a weekly chart of bitcoin. Source for above images: bitcoinandmarkets.comIll include that a strong dollar is not bearish for bitcoin. Maybe, initially, a strong dollar is correlated to lower bitcoin, but after the dollar has supported in a higher variety, that is when bitcoin has generally rallied.