Why is Jerome Powell gaslighting us about the odds of recession?

Over the last 12 months, market analysts and analysts have relentlessly forecasted that the United States is heading for an economic crisis. There is, nevertheless, much more to this story.For many, the fastest increases in interest rates ever, record-high inflation and the unforeseen banking collapses of Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic and, most recently, Pacific Western are major factors to cite indicating an economic crisis is close.Related: The Federal Reserves pursuit of a reverse wealth impact is undermining cryptoThe technical meaning of an economic downturn is 2 straight quarters of declining gross domestic item (GDP). These are all signs that the economy remains strong, and there is division on whether a recession is unavoidable in this uncommon economic environment.In the third quarter of 2022, GDP development was 3.2%; in Q4, 2.6%; and in Q1, 2%. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisAs customer spending makes up 70% of U.S. GDP, it is essential it stays healthy if the U.S. is to avoid an economic crisis. All this recommends that while the economy is losing steam, we are not in an economic crisis yet.Most analysts are, though, still anticipating an economic crisis in the second half of the year.

There is, however, much more to this story.For numerous, the fastest boosts in interest rates ever, record-high inflation and the unforeseen banking collapses of Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic and, most recently, Pacific Western are major reasons to point out indicating an economic crisis is close.Related: The Federal Reserves pursuit of a reverse wealth result is weakening cryptoThe technical definition of a recession is two straight quarters of decreasing gross domestic product (GDP). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisAs customer costs makes up 70% of U.S. GDP, it is essential it remains healthy if the U.S. is to avoid an economic crisis. All this suggests that while the economy is losing steam, we are not in an economic crisis yet.Most analysts are, however, still expecting a recession in the second half of the year.