Just how bullish is the Bitcoin halving for BTC price? Experts debate

A recent panel at the Swan Pacific Bitcoin festival was cleverly entitled, “Are halving cost cycles bullshit?” Throughout the conversation, host and founder of the Bitcoin Layer Nik Bhatia asked Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel, Swan CIO Ralph Zagury and Swan item supervisor Andy Edstrom to share their ideas on whether the Bitcoin halving is really a bullish event or just another story that newbie investors purchase into. While the panels headline may be offputting for some, the query is of excellent interest to all way of Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency investors. The traditional belief held by many in the area is that the Bitcoin supply halving is a bullish phenomenon that when total, is followed by near parabolic upside in BTC rate. Ask any bitcoin and go lover about what theyre most excited about in the next year and if they dont mention the possibility for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval initially, theyre most likely going to state the upcoming cutting in half occasion. Previous Bitcoin halving events have coincided with bull markets ramping up.But will the macro conditions be ripe for that next year in May? If we are past the initial shock of an economic crisis, ~. ~ If a spot BTC ETF is approved. ~ If QE is back on the menu.Then the planets will … pic.twitter.com/g5dEEKiSMF— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) September 6, 2023

The conventional belief held by many in the area is that the Bitcoin supply halving is a bullish phenomenon that when total, is followed by near parabolic advantage in BTC rate. Ask any bitcoin and go fan about what theyre most excited about in the next year and if they dont mention the possibility for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval initially, theyre probably going to state the upcoming halving occasion. While previous efficiency does offer some compelling proof for what might happen in the next halving, questioning long held assertions and price expectations for a high volatility asset like Bitcoin is probably something every investor should do more frequently– particularly when thinking about the number of bearish occasions that have occurred in the previous two years. If you look historically at Bitcoin cost, weve got the whole information set of cost, and you try to discover patterns of circulation, of how returns in fact work, very quickly you see that theres a lot of outer connection, which means that cost depends on time and also previous efficiency. Liquidity will be the focal pointDespite marking down the effect of Bitcoin supply halvings on BTC rate, each panelist expressed their positive longer-term bullish perspectives for Bitcoins value.With liquidity being the agreed upon future price catalyst for Bitcoin, Zagury said:”Im really bullish.

While previous efficiency does offer some compelling proof for what may happen in the next halving, questioning long held assertions and price expectations for a high volatility possession like Bitcoin is probably something every financier should do more frequently– specifically when thinking about the number of bearish events that have actually taken place in the previous two years. To begin the discussion, host Nik Bhatia leapt right in by asking “if the halving is the primary motorist of the Bitcoin rate?” Thiel rapidly reacted with: “In this cycle, no, I believe its liquidity” Zagury concurred, adding that “flow is really what drives the market, so the halving by definition, theres nothing on it that should affect price.” Surprisingly, Edstrom took a various position by recommending that:”I think the halving is still bullish and we can debate what the magnitude of that effect is, but yeah, I believe it still matters for rate.” Each panelist, including host Bhatia seemed to agree that while the halving might have some market moving capacity, it might be lessening over time. According to Bhatia,”The halving affects supply. It is less and less material as time goes on and it not does anything to affect demand. From a mental perspective, we may be able to play devils supporter.” Cutting in half hype and hopium is all in financiers headsPanelists at the “Are halving cost cycles bullshit?” panel. Source: Swan Bitcoin YouTubeSpeculation is essentially at the root of all investing, and while Zagury and Thiel are of the mind that investors associate more hope, than truth, to the projection impact of the Bitcoin halving, Edstrom sees the event as the manifestation of a “mental feedback loop entering into the demand side.””We think that Bitcoin cost is going to be higher in the future, and by extension we are using a lens of investment as were buying Bitcoin.” Another popular yearslong held belief by numerous financiers is the function derivatives play in Bitcoins rate discovery. Bhatia asked whether derivatives played a larger role than area trading in affecting Bitcoins rate action and Zagury stated,”The truth is that the data points we have, in regards to halving, are insufficient to come to any conclusion. If you look traditionally at Bitcoin rate, weve got the whole information set of rate, and you search for patterns of distribution, of how returns in fact work, very rapidly you see that theres a great deal of outer correlation, which suggests that cost depends on time and likewise previous efficiency.”According to Zagury, “an aspect of Bitcoin which is very curious, and I believe there isnt any other asset class like this out there, is that the majority of the time, Bitcoin is moving either sideways, in terms of number of days, its either sideways or down.” Related: BTC cost models mean $130K target after 2024 Bitcoin halvingBitcoins time invested trading in a rangebound band or in a sag is what Zagury says “makes it actually hard to hodl, right, since it indicates youre going to have months and years of discomfort and youre going to have days of glory.””Being a hodler by meaning, by circulation of costs that you see traditionally, its extremely tough.” Peddling back to the initial question about the role derivatives play in Bitcoin price discovery, Zagury said:”When we speak about derivatives, the first thing youre going to discuss is likelihood. Its difficult to conclude what is truly going to occur with Bitcoin price, thats the very first thing that you conclude by taking a look at historical returns. Going back to the halving, the fact that it actually outer correlates a lot, often, in particular times of low liquidity. A little relocation that bumps the price up, the limited seller out there will go through the short-term sellers and after that the rate will jump up considerably. This explains why price goes up extremely quickly.” Liquidity will be the focal pointDespite discounting the effect of Bitcoin supply halvings on BTC rate, each panelist expressed their favorable longer-term bullish viewpoints for Bitcoins value.With liquidity being the concurred upon future price driver for Bitcoin, Zagury said:”Im extremely bullish. I believe we are visiting that quickly, due to the fact that liquidity has been drawing down and we see that these things are beginning to take place and its not going to take a lot for us to see a huge relocation.” When asked when and how this critical liquidity comes back, Edstrom hinted that 10-year U.S. Treasuries pressing above 5%, the possible local bank failures that mirror the ones seen 6 months earlier, and the increasing quantity of banks holding long period of time government debt at a loss, are all indications that a Federal Reserve pivot that go back to quantitative easing might happen sooner than later.This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. Every financial investment and trading relocation includes threat, and readers must conduct their own research when making a decision.